The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 1.4 points in October, reaching 83.7 points, the highest level since May 2017 (84.2). Compared to the same period the previous year, the index advanced 3.9 points. 

“The more consistent recovery of the economy caused consumer confidence to return to the same level as prior to the political crisis. However, in comparison with business indicators, consumer confidence is still low, signaling caution in the face of high levels of uncertainty. The results suggest that improved consumption in recent months has been supported more by the release of the FGTS funds, falling interest rates, and depreciation of durable goods than by consumer optimism,” said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Coordinator of the Consumer Survey.

In October, consumers evaluated more favorably both the current situation and the future prospects. The Current Situation index (ISA) rose for the third consecutive month by 2.3 points, reaching 73.2 points, the best result since June 2015 (74.9). The Expectations Index (IE) advanced for the second month by 0.7 points, reaching 91.8, close to the result of June this year (91.7).

Consumers were less dissatisfied with the economic situation in general. The indicators that measure the assessments on the economic situation at the time and in the near future increased by 2.7 points, exerting a positive influence on the confidence index this month. 

There was also an increase in satisfaction related to family finances. The indicator that measures the assessments at the time increased by 2.0 points to 67.1 points, the highest level since August 2015 (70.5). Despite more favorable perspectives regarding the financial situation of families in the coming months, consumers remain cautious when planning their purchases: The indicator that measures the purchase intention of durable goods retreated for the fifth consecutive month to 71.3 points, a level close to that of last April (71.1).

In October, confidence advanced in three of the four income ranges studied. The biggest increase was recorded in families with income between R$ 4,800.01 and R$ 9,600.00. For these, there has been considerable improvement in the satisfaction with the current situation and expectations for the near future. Among families with income over R$ 9,600.00, the confidence level retreated by 2.2 points, influenced by negative expectations about the future. 

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