The Business Confidence Index (ICE) calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) advanced 2.6 points in October, reaching 90.3 points, the highest level since July 2014 (91.3 points).

“The recovery of business confidence gained consistency in recent months with a more expressive advance of current situation indicators, reflecting a migration of unfavorable responses to others that paint a picture of normality. In the future, pessimism begins to give way to moderate optimism, exemplified by the behavior of the employment indicator, which records, for the first time since November 2014, more companies predicting increases than reductions in the total employed staff in the following months,” said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics at IBRE.

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates the confidence indexes of the four sectors covered by the business surveys conducted by FGV IBRE: Industry, Services, Commerce, and Construction.

In October, the Current Situation index (ISA-E) advanced more than the Expectations Index (IE-E) for the third consecutive month, reducing the gap between the two indicators to 10.9 points. The ISA-E advanced 2.6 points, reaching 86.1 points, the highest level since December 2014 (86.8). The IE-E rose 1.5 points to 97.0, the highest level since March 2014 (97.2).

Confidence rose across all sectors in the month. The largest contributers to the increase in the ICE were Industry (0.9 points) and the Services Sector (0.9 points), followed by Commerce (0.7 points) and Construction (0.1 points).

The hiring momentum indicator advanced 1.8 percentage points (without standardization) in October, reaching 101.8 points, signaling that there are more companies predicting an increase than reduction in the workforce in the coming months, something that had not happened since November 2014. The main contributor to the increase in the margin was Commerce (1.0 points), followed by Services (0.7 points) and Construction (0.2 points). Industry contributed negatively for the month with 0.1 points. 

The complete results are available on this website.