Published by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and The Conference Board (TCB), the Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% between October and November, reaching 111.2 points. Five of the eight component series contributed to the increase in the indicator, particularly the Consumer Expectations Index, which varied 4.6%. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI, FGV TCB), which measures current economic conditions, rose 0.3% in the same period, totaling 99.9 points. 

“All CEI components contributed positively to the higher index in November, marking in its eighth consecutive month of non-negative variations. The behavior of the LEI in same period indicates that the economic expansion trend that started in the first quarter of 2017 should continue over the next few months,” said Paulo Picchetti, IBRE researcher.

The Leading Economic Index comprises eight economic categories to gauge Brazil’s economic activity. Each of them has been individually proven to effectively anticipate economic trends. The incorporation of individual indicators into a compound index filters the so-called “noise”, in order to effectively reveal actual economic trends.

About the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

The Brazilian Leading Economic Index (LEI) was launched in July 2013 by FGV’s IBRE and The Conference Board. With a series dating back to 1996, the LEI would have reliably anticipated all four of the recessions identified by IBRE’s Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE) during this period. The indicator allows a direct comparison between Brazil’s economic cycles and those of 11 other countries and regions already covered by The Conference Board: China, United States, Eurozone, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Spain, and United Kingdom.

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