The Trade Confidence Index (ICOM), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 0.2 point in January, reaching 95.1 points – the highest level since July 2014 (95.4). In quarterly moving averages, the index rose for the fifth month in a row (0.9 point). 

“ICOM’s increase in January was driven by improved indicators gauging satisfaction with the current situation, supported by factors such as low inflation, gradual recovery of the job market, and higher consumer confidence. The isolated decrease in expectations also suggests some caution for subsequent months, showing that the recovery should maintain a gradual pace in the first quarter,” said Rodolpho Tobler, Coordinator of IBRE’s Trade Survey.

In January, the ICOM rose in 11 of the 13 surveyed segments and was determined by the improvement in the Current Situation index (ISA), which advanced 2.4 points, reaching a total of 88.0 points. The Expectations Index (IE-COM) fell 2.0 points in the month, down to 102.4 points. Despite the fall in the month, this was the first time since January 2014 that the index has remained in the optimistic range for three consecutive months (above 100 points).

ICOM’s recent improvement was also observed in the Expectations Indicator with Total Employed People in Trade. Considering quarterly moving averages, the ratio of companies foreseeing an increase in total staff within three months stood at 15.5% in January 2018, while 11.2% expected a reduction. In the same period last year, these percentages were 9.7% and 17.0%, respectively. January’s results are even more significant: this month, 19.1% of companies expect to increase the total number of employed people, while 12.5% expect a reduction. The gap between the extreme portions of responses is the widest seen since November 2014.

The January 2018 edition collected information from 1,216 companies between January 2 and 23. The next Trade Survey will be released on February 27, 2018.

Go to the website to read the complete study, available in Portuguese.