The Business Confidence Index (ICE), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 1.5 points in January to 94.9 points. After the seventh consecutive increase, the index reached its highest level since April 2014 (95.5 points). 

“Business confidence is starting the year off high and with favorable signs for continuing recovery of the Brazilian economy. There is significant sector dissemination of the increase and improved assessments on the current situation. The best prospects for hiring stand out from an expectations standpoint, especially the late Construction sector, which is not yet hiring but is already tending to stabilize the total number of employees,” says Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics for FGV’s IBRE.

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates the confidence indexes of the four sectors covered by the Business Surveys produced by FGV’s IBRE: Industry, Services, Commerce, and Construction.

The ICE increase in January was mainly due to the perception of the business community’s present moment: the Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 0.8 points to 88.7 points, the highest level since August 2014 (89.2 points). The Expectations Index (IE) rose 0.2 points, reaching 99.5 points, the highest since December 2013 (100.2 points).

Business confidence rose in three of the four sectors that make up the ICE. The main factor behind such increase in January was the Services sector (1.2 points), followed by Construction (0.2 points) and Trade (0.1 points). Industrial confidence remained stable in the month.

Diffusion of Confidence

In January, confidence rose in 76% of the 49 segments surveyed by FGV’s IBRE for the ICE. Considering the quarterly moving averages, segments with higher confidence margins account for 69% of the total.

The January 2018 edition of the index surveyed 4946 companies between January 2 and 26. The next ICE will be released on March 1. The complete study is available on the website.