The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp), developed by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), dropped 1.9 points in March, down to 107.7 points – offsetting last month’s increase. Despite the drop, the indicator maintained a rising trend in quarterly moving averages (0.2 point).

“The leading indicator of employment has reached a fairly high level, reflecting a recovery in confidence and the economy, pointing to a much stronger hiring rate in the next few months”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, IBRE economist.

The Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU), in turn, fell 0.9 point in March, down to 96.2 points – reaching its lowest level since August 2016 (95.8 points). “The indicator reveals an improved perception in employment conditions, especially among consumers with higher income. However, the CIU shows a still very troubled job market scenario, despite the gradual improvement seen in recent months”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

LIEmp and CIU Highlights

Five of the seven components of LIEmp showed lower results, particularly the component measuring the current business situation, of the Processing Industry, which varied -10.2 points in the margin – the main driver behind the indicator’s drop. 

The main components behind the CIU’s drop relate to the consumer group with monthly household income between BRL 4,100.00 and BRL 9,600.00, and the group with income above BRL 9,600.00, whose Indicator regarding the perceived difficulty of getting a job fell 1.6 and 2.1 points, respectively.

The next IBRE Job Market Indicators will be published on May 8.