The Trade Confidence Index (ICOM), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), was relatively stable in April, varying -0.1 point to 96.7 points. This was the first decrease after seven consecutive increases. In quarterly moving averages, the indicator rose for the eighth month in a row (0.5 point).

"After a period of consistent high trade confidence, the April result seems to reflect the uncertainty about the future pace of the economy. The faltering expectations suggest that trade entrepreneurs are cautious about the coming months, while the fourth consecutive increase in the Current Situation Index (ISA) reinforces the perception that the sales recovery phase persists,” said Rodolpho Tobler, Coordinator of IBRE’s Trade Survey.

In April, seven of the 13 surveyed segments advanced. The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) advanced 0.6 point, reaching 94.1 points, the highest value since June 2014 (96.5 points). The Expectations Index (IE-COM) was down 0.8 points, totaling 99.4 points. In the year, the indexes also moved in opposite directions: the ISA-COM rose 8.5 points, while the IE-COM retreated 5.0 points. With that, the difference between ISA and IE fell to 5.3 points, the lowest since July 2015 (2.9 points).

Trade expectations worsened in April, contributing to the third consecutive fall in the quarterly moving averages series. The revision of expectations was determined by the non-durable segment. The Expectations Index of non-durable goods sellers shrank by 2.9 points in the month, reversing the uptrend of recent months. The Expectations Index of the segments linked to durable goods resellers rose 0.8 point in April, keeping the uptrend in quarterly moving averages. The durable goods IE continued uptrend above 100 points reflects the effective improvement of sales in 2018, due to the reduction of interest rates and the weak base of sales last year.

The April 2018 edition collected data from 1,131 companies between April 2 and 20. The next Trade Survey results will be published on May 24, 2018. The complete study is available on the website.