The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), dropped 0.8 points in July, down to 94.7 points – the lowest level since December 2016 (90.0 points). The indicator retreated for the fifth consecutive time, which had not occurred since the middle of the second quarter of 2014, when the crisis began.

“The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp) remains on its downward trend, converging on levels close to the historical average prior to the crisis (87 points). This fact shows that job creation should be more modest over the coming months, related to the lower than expected economic growth”, said IBRE economist Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

The Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU) dropped in July, varying -1.0 point, down to 96.1 points, returning to the level of March this year. The CIU is an indicator with a signal similar to the unemployment rate, i.e., the smaller the number, the better the result.

“The Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU) remains stable, even if at a high level, which indicates a very difficult job market. The July 2018 index is on a level similar to the one seen in March 2018, but lower than what was observed in 2017. However, the slight decrease illustrates a job market that is still fragile, and recovery should continue at moderate pace”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

The complete study is available on the website.