The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) dropped 0.2 point in October, down to 90.8 points. This is the eighth consecutive monthly decrease of the indicator, which is returning to the level of December 2016 (90.0 points).

“The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp) dropped yet again, showing that the expectation adjustment process continues. The decrease in the LIEmp shows the reversal of optimism on the dynamism of economic activity, which had underwhelming performance in 2018. In addition, there is still uncertainty about growth in 2019”, said IBRE economist Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

The Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU) increased by 2.6 points in October, up to 100.2 points, returning to the level of December 2017 (100.3 points). The CIU is an indicator similar to the unemployment rate, i.e., the smaller the number, the better the result.

“The increase in the Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU) shows that workers are still facing a very tough job market. The slight drop in unemployment rates has not been enough to make workers feel an improvement in the current situation of the job market”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

Three of the seven indicators that make up the LIEmp contributed positively to the increase in the index, especially the indicator that assesses future local employment in the Consumer Survey, which increased by 8.1 points between September and October.

The income classes that most contributed to the increase in the CIU were consumers with household income of up to BRL 2,100.00, whose Employment Indicator (inverted) varied 6.1 points; and the income range of BRL 2,100.00 to BRL 4,800.00, which rose 4.2 points. Go to the website for more information.