New IBRE indicator features consumer inflation expectations

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) will launch this month the Indicator of Inflationary Expectations of Consumers - obtained based on information collected by the Survey on Consumer Expectations. IBRE has been producing the indicators of quantitative inflationary expectations since September 2005 and they were released as side information to the analysis on the evolution of consumer confidence.According to the institute, inflation expectations are important to understand the inflationary process and they can be used as a support for decision making in the private sphere and calibration of short-term economic policies.First resultsThe inflation expectations of consumers had presented an upward trend between January 2013 and last April. In this period, the median rates expected by the Brazilians increased from 6.3% to 7.5%, with acceleration between March and April 2014, when the median of the forecasts increased from 7.2% to 7.5%, the highest level since November 2005 (7.8%). The results of May 2014 indicate a settlement compared to the previous month, when the median retreated to 7.2%.According to the economist Angelo Polydoro, at IBRE, the result should be interpreted with caution. The inflation expectations of consumers have shown an upward trend since February 2013. Although it has decreased in May, it is too early to state that a downward trend will initiate, he said.Please click here and learn more about the new indicator (in Portuguese).
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