Economic climate in Latin America at its worst in a decade, according to IBRE

The Ifo/FGV indicator of Economic Climate in Latin America (ICE) - prepared in partnership between the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and the German Institute Ifo, with the database of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) - decreased in April, after recording an increase between October 2013 and January 2014. This is the worst result shown by the indicator in ten years.The 5.3% decrease - from 95 to 90 points - was motivated by deterioration in both the current situation indicator (ISA) and the expectations index (IE). All three indicators are unfavorable and continue, as in January's Survey, below their historical averages of the last decade.Despite the ICE?s decrease compared to January, Colombia and Paraguay remained in the favorable zone. Chile, Ecuador and Mexico went from a favorable to an unfavorable zone. The other two countries that experienced a decline in the ICE - Brazil and Argentina - were already in the unfavorable zone. In total, seven of the eleven countries monitored by the Survey decreased. The assessment regarding the current situation deteriorated in seven, while expectations were worse in five countries.Economic climate in Brazil is criticalBrazil stands out with the biggest ICE drop among the 11 countries: the indicator went from 89 to 71 points, a 20% reduction. In the historical series started in 1989, this is the worst rate since January 1999. At the peak of the crisis in 2008, the lowest indicator was recorded in January 2009 (78 points).Brazil's ICE is lower than that of Argentina (75 points) and it exceeds only the number for Venezuela, which remains at the minimum value of 20 points since July 2013. The ICE for Bolivia, Peru and Uruguay has improved and the countries were at the favorable assessment zone or at the limit (in case of Uruguay, where the ICE in January was at 100 points).According to IBRE, the lack of international competitiveness, lack of confidence in government policies, and then, inflation and lack of skilled labor are factors that explain the deterioration of Latin America's economic climate.Please click here and learn more about this publication of the Economic Climate Indicator (in Portuguese).
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