Productivity growth would balance out minimum wage, say experts at FGV seminar

An incentive for productivity growth and the indexation of the minimum wage to this dynamic would be the most balanced way to maintain real gains of the Brazilian minimum wage floor in the long run. This is one of the main conclusions reached at the workshop Política de Salário Mínimo para 2015-2018: Avaliações de Impacto Econômico e Social? (Minimum Wage Policy for 2015-2018: Economic and Social Impact Reviews) promoted by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) and São Paulo School of Economics (FGV/EESP). In two days of meetings, researchers and professors of FGV, Unicamp, UFRJ, PUC-Rio and representatives of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Economic Studies (DIEESE), the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) and LCA Strategic Solutions in Economics talked about the minimum wage issue in the country from the points of view of the labor market, income distribution, public finance, inflation and macroeconomics. And one of the main debates was on the revision of the current adjustment formula, which should happen in 2015.I think that the next government will face many important challenges in the first year in office, which may turn this debate into a minor issue, said the economist Claudio Dedecca, of Unicamp. In Dedecca's opinion, the tendency to maintain the rule - which takes into account inflation over the previous year plus the GDP from the previous two years - should happen regardless of which candidate wins the election. Any president, who submits a modification proposal identified as opposite to a conquest of the Brazilian people, and denied in the Legislative power, will carry the burden of the initiative. I don't think any of them will be willing to do that, he said.Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, from IBRE, and Carlos Henrique Corseuil, from Ipea, reinforced Dedecca's opinion, highlighting that the pros and cons of a change may not be discussed in depth with society. Today we observe a poorly informed public opinion, said Corseuil. If someone proposes that instead of GDP growth, the gain should be calculated by increasing labor productivity and the worker realizes that for this reason he/she will get a 2% increase, and no longer a 4% increase, he/she will neither care nor understand the implications of this change in the country's competitiveness, says Barbosa Filho.Minimum wage, the reduction of inequality and public financeDespite the problems caused by the increase of the minimum wage with low productivity in the country, most experts do not agree with its reduction, since Brazil still needs to improve its income distribution. They emphasize, however, that attention must be paid to the sustainability of public finances - which may deteriorate if the current minimum wage rule remains the indexation basis for retirement benefits, pension and welfare benefits - and that the issue should be dealt away from the heat of the elections.I hope that the change or not in the minimum wage rule is not defined right now, in an election year, but next year. In any case, we want to map the perspective of each of the experts who spoke at the event to identify which problems in the minimum wage each one observes. And our goal was achieved, said EESP's professor and former executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Nelson Barbosa. At the end of the seminar, Barbosa summarized the solutions presented. We have proposals ranging from a faster increase, based on the idea that we are still far from the ideal minimum wage calculated by Dieese, to maintaining the current rule - a line of smaller political effort and also those who think that this rule does not create too many macroeconomic problems, he said.Other approaches have also been raised by the economist. We had proposals to maintain the minimum wage, adding only an adjustment for inflation and focus on year-end bonuses and the opposite; proposals for more moderate adjustments by increasing the indexed minimum wage to the GDP per worker. And finally, the proposals of untying the minimum wage floor - and they include those that untie social security and welfare benefits from the minimum wage, although the numbers have shown that the level of poverty in Brazil, at least the rate for seniors, is much lower than in other Latin American countries. And one of the reasons is exactly the income transfer to social security, he recalled.The seminar Política de Salário Mínimo para 2015-2018: Avaliações de Impacto Econômico e Social took place on May 7-8, at Fundação Getulio Vargas' main offices in Rio de Janeiro.
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