Exchange rate presents challenges for Brazil, FGV/EESP indicates

The real exchange rate in Brazil came very close to the equilibrium exchange rate in late 2013. However, a more depreciated rate introduces a new challenge for the formulation of a macroeconomic policy that reconciles economic growth and a possible pressure on inflation. These are some findings of the research conducted by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomics of São Paulo School of Economics (FGV/EESP) and published today in the newspaper Valor Econômico.According to the study, the real exchange rate went through a devaluation of 13.4% in 2013, taking into account the annual average, compared to an equilibrium exchange rate against a basket of currencies from the country's main trade partners. The average misalignment of 2013 was very close to 2012 - the year for which the same calculation indicates an annual average exchange rate appreciation of 14.2%. The monthly data; however, indicates a rate closer to the equilibrium at the end of 2013, due to a higher depreciation concentrated in the last months of the year.The survey also points out that we cannot ignore stronger depreciation movements of the real exchange rate throughout 2014 with a possible devaluation beyond the equilibrium of the Brazilian currency. According to the coordinator of the center, Emerson Fernandes Marçal, there is still the need for an adjustment in the evolution of relative prices between the sectors responsible for the production of international tradable and non-tradable goods: unlike what has been happening in recent years, the prices for the first need to go through a greater change than non-tradable goods, in order to release the pressure on profits and allow production and expansion investments to companies.Whereas for the domestic economy, Marçal warned about the risk that the real exchange rate depreciation may represent an additional constraint to the inflation control policy.What is the equilibrium rate?From a country's trade and production point of view, the equilibrium rate can be understood as that which is neutral for exporters, importers and domestic producers, and that does not favor one party over the other.Please click here and learn more about FGV/EESP (in Portuguese).
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