Population will only feel a reduction in prices in 2017, according to IBRE

Researchers from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE), Salomão Quadros and André Braz, analyzed the economic impacts of the World Cup and the Olympics, especially those related to inflationary effects, in the January edition of IBRE's Macro Bulletin.
Institucional
22 Janeiro 2014

With two major events - the World Cup and the Olympics ? taking place in a short period of time in Brazil, researchers from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE), Salomão Quadros and André Braz, analyzed the economic impacts of these events, especially those related to inflationary effects, in the January edition of IBRE's Macro Bulletin.They highlight the perception that the World cup effect is not neutral for annual inflation. Although the effect of mega events is not permanent - that is, the impact on inflation will grow, but then later retreat - the period in which this will happen is above one year. It seems as though this effect was permanent for the inflation in 2014, said Quadros.The researchers also point out that the increase in prices can already be felt and it is likely that they will only gradually return back to normal. Since Brazil will host two major events, with an interval of two years between them, the potential inflationary pressures felt now, according to a study by the Central Bank, will only begin to dissipate in the year following the last event. That is, the population will only feel a decrease in prices in 2017. The Central Bank's study predicts that this may continue until 2023, when the effect will wear off completely, stated Quadros.Also according to the economists, the impacts will be felt mainly in the prices of services such as food, lodging and transportation - exactly where inflation is already being pressured. In addition, other sectors will indirectly suffer the World Cup effect. Since these mega events require a lot of manpower, contracting maintenance services such as residential repairs may become even more difficult. This is a big item in the family budget, heavily dependent on labor, which is already scarce. Therefore, during this period of World Cup and Olympics there will be a big drain for the events, making it difficult to contract these types of services, concluded Salomão.

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