Economic activity in Brazil may be recovering, according to IBRE

Institucional
17 Outubro 2013

The Composite Leading Economic Index (CLEI) for Brazil, published by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) and by The Conference Board, advanced 0.5% in September, reaching the mark of 125.8 points (2004=100). The result followed a 0.9% increase in August and a 2.2% decrease in July. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in September.The relative growth of the CLEI in Brazil reinforces the likelihood of a weak recovery of economic activity for the last quarter of 2013, says Paulo Picchetti, FGV/IBRE economist. The dimension of this recovery is still uncertain given the high volatility of international markets and the low rate of trust among Brazilian managers and businesspeople, he warns.The Composite Coincident Economic Indicator (CCEI) of Brazil, on the other hand, also prepared by FGV/IBRE and by The Conference Board, which measures the current economic conditions, increased by 0.2% in September, reaching the mark of 129.2 points (2004 = 100). The result followed a 0.2% increase in August and a 0.1% increase in July. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.About the Composite Leading Economic Index (CLEI)The Composite Leading Economic Index (CLEI)? for Brazil was launched in July 2013 by FGV/IBRE and The Conference Board.  With a series since 1996, the CLEI reliably anticipated all four recessions identified by IBRE's Committee of Economic Cycles Dating (CODACE) during this period. The indicator allows a direct comparison among economic cycles in Brazil and those of 11 other countries and regions already covered by The Conference Board: China, the United States, the Euro Zone, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Spain and the United Kingdom.The CLEI adds eight economic components that measure the economic activity in Brazil. Each one of them has been proving to be individually efficient in anticipating economic trends. By adding individual indicators into a composite index, the so-called noises are filtered, helping to reveal the effective economic trend.Please click here to read the full publication on IBRE's website (page in Portuguese).  

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