Published by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and The Conference Board (TCB), Brazil's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 1.7% between November and December, reaching 101.2 points (2010 = 100). Seven of the index’s eight series contributed to the drop in December; the 360-day SWAP interest rate was the only series that increased.

The country’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI), also published by the IBRE and TCB, and which assesses current economic conditions, was up 0.3% between November and December, reaching 97.8 points (2010 = 100). Considering the data analyzed, this result follows a 0.5% increase in November and a 0.4% drop in October.

“Above all else, the drop in the LEI in December reflects an adjustment of expectations, following a period of premature upsurge in expectations throughout 2016. After such expectations were adjusted, however, the CEI now points toward a slight increase in economic recovery at first,” said Paulo Picchetti, IBRE researcher.

The LEI comprises eight economic categories to gauge Brazil’s economic activity. Each of them has been individually proven to effectively anticipate economic trends. The incorporation of individual indicators into a compound index filters the so-called “noise”, in order to effectively reveal actual economic trends.

Please visit the website to read the complete study, available in English.