Brazil’s GDP accurately forecast by FGV’s Macro Bulletin and GDP Monitor

Brazil’s GDP dropped 0.9% in 4Q 2016, QoQ, considering the seasonally adjusted series. In the YoY comparison, the GDP dropped 2.5% in the last quarter of 2016. FGV’s GDP Monitor showed the exact same results.

On the supply side, the seasonally adjusted series showed a high in agriculture & livestock (1.0%) and drops in industry (-0.7%) and services (-0.8%). On the demand side, household consumption (-0.6%) and investments (-1.6%) also dropped.

“In 2016, the GDP dropped 3.6% compared to the previous year – virtually the same variation of 3.8% recorded in 2015. The Brazilian Institute of Economics Macro Bulletin had already been predicting a 3.6% GDP drop since last January,” said Júlio Mereb, economist from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE).