Northeast job market improves, but uncertainties persist

The labor market in the Northeast showed significant progress in 2024, according to data from the March 2025 Macro Regional Bulletin - Northeast, prepared by FGV IBRE. The region's unemployment rate closed the year at 8.6% in the fourth quarter, a significant drop from 10.4% in the same period in 2023. In addition, more than 330,000 formal jobs were created over the course of the year, showing a solid recovery in employment. 

Among the northeastern states, Ceará recorded the lowest unemployment rate (6.5%), while Pernambuco (10.2%) and Bahia (9.9%) had the worst performances. The labor force participation rate also grew, from 54.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 55.2% in the same period of 2024. Despite these advances, the participation rate is still below pre-pandemic levels, which reached 58% between 2014 and 2015. 

However, the first figures for 2025 indicate a warning sign. The jobs balance in January was negative, with the loss of 2,671 jobs, following a trend observed since December 2024. This movement suggests a possible cooling of the labor market, which could intensify if economic activity slows down in the coming months. 

According to an analysis by FGV IBRE, in order to sustain job creation, it will be essential to maintain investments in infrastructure and incentive programs for the productive sector. 

sector. The impact of a less heated economy may be more severe in the Northeast, a region that is historically more vulnerable to national economic fluctuations. 

Access the full report.