Brazil's Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes advance in December

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil, released by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and The Conference Board (TCB), rose 0.9% to 114.5 points between November and December.
经济学
19 一月 2018
Brazil's Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes advance in December

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil, released by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and The Conference Board (TCB), rose 0.9% to 114.5 points between November and December. Of the eight component series, seven contributed to the increase in the indicator, highlighting Ibovespa, which rose 6.2%.  In addition to the LEI, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI, FGV TCB) for Brazil, which measures current economic conditions, also increased 0.5% over the same period, reaching 102.7 points.

“The results of the leading and coincident indicators in December marked the continued trend of positive changes seen in recent months, corroborating a recovering activity level,” said Paulo Picchetti, researcher from FGV’s IBRE.

He stated that the negative December variations of some components of these indicators show that this expansion is still slow and not fully disseminated among the sectors, but not enough to consider a likely reversal of the current growth phase.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) joins eight economic components that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each one has been individually efficient in anticipating economic trends. The aggregation of individual indicators into a composite index filters out the so-called ‘noise,’ contributing to reveal the effective economic trend.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil was launched in July 2013 by FGV’s IBRE and The Conference Board. With a series since 1996, the LEI would have reliably anticipated all four of the recessions identified by IBRE’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE) during this period. The indicator allows a direct comparison between the economic cycles of Brazil and another 11 countries and regions already covered by The Conference Board: China, United States, Euro Zone, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Spain, and United Kingdom.

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