New FGV study presents soybean decarbonization projection and mitigation model

The Bioeconomy Knowledge and Innovation Observatory at Fundação Getulio Vargas' Sao Paulo of Economics (FGV EESP) recently carried out a study about Brazilian soybeans’ potential to mitigation greenhouse gases if grown in direct seeding systems. The study also measured the amount of extra carbon that would be removed from the atmosphere if forestry areas were added to 10%, 20% or 30% of soybean croplands in Brazil between now and 2030.

The study used a forecasting and mitigation model for different agricultural decarbonization measures, based on projections regarding soybean production and planted areas, together with different scenarios involving increased use of integrated forestry-farming systems up to 2030.

Agribusiness plays a key role in the Brazilian economy and it has made Brazil a global leader in the production and export of agricultural products. The sector accounts for 27% of the country’s gross domestic product, 20% of all jobs and 48% of exports. Farming’s economic importance has been boosted by constant growth over the last few decades.

The availability of arable land and climatic conditions, associated with the constant generation and adoption of technologies, have allowed Brazil to play a leading role in global food production and trading. Alongside this growth, there has been increasing pressure on natural resources, underlining the importance of sustainability for agriculture and the economy as a whole. Thus, it has been necessary to continuously search for production systems that are more efficient while saving natural resources.

The study’s calculation methodology was based on the methodological framework of the protocols for calculating greenhouse gas emission inventories that have been developed for almost two decades by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in partnership with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The metrics for these greenhouse gas protocols are now internationally accepted and used to calculate corporate inventories and undertake projects and studies related to greenhouse gas emissions and capture.

Sector’s challenges

The environmental impact of agricultural activities and climate change is a key challenge related to the sector’s growth and economic growth as a whole. Agriculture stands out for two reasons: it is vulnerable to climate change and its production processes emit a lot of greenhouse gases. As a result, there is great concern to ensure the sustainable advancement of agricultural production systems, which will be crucial to the sector’s survival.

Brazilian soy is a low-carbon crop, emitting around 9 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year. However, there is great potential for this crop to become not only carbon neutral, but also a carbon sink, and it could participate in a future emissions trading market involving Brazil.

Study’s contributions

Researchers carried out a quantitative analysis of Brazilian soybean production’s greenhouse gas mitigation potential until 2030, considering different scenarios for the adoption of integrated crop-forestry systems, biological nitrogen fixation technology and no-tillage systems. A projection and mitigation model for soybean decarbonization actions was developed, and different scenarios for the rollout of integrated crop-forestry systems up to 2030 were explored. These scenarios considered the adoption of integrated crop-forestry systems in 10%, 20% and 30% of Brazil’s total soybean crop area.

Brazilian soybean production already mostly uses biological nitrogen fixation technology. This involves using inoculated seeds, thereby avoiding the need for nitrogen fertilizers and the resultant greenhouse gas emission associated with manure, fertilizer and mechanized operations. The use of inoculated seeds avoids the emission of around 68 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year.

About the Bioeconomy Knowledge and Innovation Observatory

The Bioeconomy Knowledge and Innovation Observatory is an interdisciplinary center created by Fundação Getulio Vargas, specializing in climate change, land use and biodiversity use. Its mission is to produce applied knowledge, carry out technical training and spread information to aid Brazil’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

To find out more about the Bioeconomy Knowledge and Innovation Observatory, visit its website.