A recent study, carried out as part of a doctoral dissertation by Pedro Henrique Chaves Maia, a student at Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (FGV EPGE) and supervised by Professor Bruno Barsanetti, presents an analysis of the effects of high-intensity rainfall on urban mobility in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The research quantifies the significant impacts of this rain on the use and operation of Rio’s public transportation system.

The study’s main findings were as follows:

• Reduction in bus speed: The study found an average 8.94% reduction in bus speed during heavy rainfall events.
• Spatial heterogeneity: The wealthier planning areas (South Side and Downtown) experience a smaller reduction in road speed as a result of more recurrent but less extreme high-intensity rains.
• Passenger adaptation: There is a decrease in the number of passengers using the public transportation system during moderate rainfall. This effect is attributed to the inconvenience of accessing stations and stops. In more severe rains, however, passengers opt more for public transportation, probably due to the greater resilience of the rail system.
• Cost of rain: It is estimated that the annual opportunity cost of time lost in traffic jams caused by high-intensity rainfall is R$678 million.

Chaves Maia used an unprecedented database, comprising high-frequency GPS information from Rio de Janeiro’s buses and public transportation usage data, both between 2017 and 2018. The analysis was divided into four main parts:

• Estimation of speed losses: Evaluation of bus speed losses due to heavy rainfall.
• Identification of bottlenecks: Identification of bottlenecks induced by heavy rainfall, involving a detailed analysis of spatial heterogeneity.
• Passenger adaptation: Analysis of changes in the use of public transportation due to heavy rainfall.
• Impact analysis: Evaluation of the effectiveness of urban infrastructure and public interventions at mitigating the reduction in traffic speed due to heavy rainfall.

All this analysis was conducted using econometric regression models with high-dimensional fixed effects.

Chaves Maia’s study offers valuable insights for the formulation of public policies and urban planning. The work contributes to the discussion of topics such as:

• adaptation to climate change: The estimates highlight the importance of considering smaller weather events, such as heavy rainfall, in discussions about urban adaptation.
• urban infrastructure: The need for effective infrastructure interventions to mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall is evident, especially in the most vulnerable areas.
• public transportation planning: The research provides relevant data to improve the resilience of public transportation, contributing to a more robust and efficient system.

The study emphasizes the relevance of in-depth analysis of the impacts of high-intensity rainfall, not only to understand current challenges, but also to prepare for future scenarios predicted by climate change. Adaptation and continuous improvement of urban infrastructure are essential to minimize negative impacts on the mobility and quality of life of Rio’s citizens.

To read the full study, click here.

To find out more about FGV EPGE, click here.